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BIG COUNTRY, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) — We’re keeping a close eye on a developing severe weather setup that could impact the Big Country on Tuesday and Wednesday. While it’s not expected to be a major outbreak, there’s enough uncertainty to warrant staying weather-aware. As always, Texas weather loves to keep us on our toes!
Severe storms need four key ingredients, often remembered by the acronym SLIM:
- Shear – Wind changes with height, helping storms organize.
- Lift – Something to get storms going, like a dryline or cold front.
- Instability – Warm, moist air at the surface with colder air aloft to fuel storms.
- Moisture – Plenty of moisture to keep storms going.
Tuesday and Wednesday meet some of the necessary conditions, but not all, which is the main reason for uncertainty in storm development.
Timeline of Events
The Storm Prediction Center placed much of the Big Country under a marginal to slight risk for severe storms on Tuesday. A dryline will be in place, providing the needed lift, but weather models suggest the cap (a layer of warm air aloft that suppresses storms) may hold strong. If the cap weakens, isolated storms could form, bringing hail, gusty winds, and a very small chance for a tornado to develop.
Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center keeps a marginal risk in place for the region, and this day looks slightly more favorable for storms. A strong upper-level disturbance will provide better lift, and models show potential storm development in the Heartland region during the evening. If storms form, they could organize more efficiently due to increasing wind shear, bringing a risk of strong winds, hail, and a small chance for a brief spin-up tornado.
Weather Models & Rainfall Potential
Future weather models hint at limited storm activity on Tuesday, but there is a better chance of storms Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning.
The latest drought monitor still shows moderate to severe drought across much of the Big Country, so we’ll take every drop we can get!
As always, make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings. This is one of those setups where things could change quickly, so stay tuned for updates as we adjust the forecast. Stay safe, Big Country.
